Lupta împotriva duşmanilor încălzirii globale se ascute pe zi ce trece. Laboratoarele ONU prepară consens ştiinţific proaspăt conform planului cincinal. Al Gore se ocupă de partea artistică şi produce Godzilla climaterică. Comisia Nobel îl premiază pe Al Gore. Greenpeace are o armată de activişti şi două de avocaţi. Numeroşi oameni de ştiinţă (între 100 şi cîtă frunză cîtă iarbă) demonstrează incontestabil că apocalipsa e după colţ şi primesc fonduri generoase ca să-şi continue cercetările. La capătul conductei, presa împachetează şi varsă mesajul în capul meu şi al tău. Iar mesajul este: eu, tu, el şi ea sîntem de vină. Noi sîntem de vină că planeta are febră şi de aceea trebuie să intrăm de urgenţă în regim de penitenţă.
Dar duşmanii încălzirii globale continuă să susţină că termometrul este măsluit. Ca adevăraţi duşmani ai încălzirii globale şi prieteni ai omului, ei cred că o febră nu se tratează cu amputarea picioarelor. Specia noastra a supravieţuit adaptîndu-se, nu mutilîndu-se.
Nouăzeci şi nouă de oameni de ştiinţă au adresat secretarului ONU şi şefilor de state întruniţi la conferinţa de la Bali următoarea scrisoare deschisă.
Open Letter to the Secretary-General of the United Nations
Dec. 13, 2007
His Excellency Ban Ki-Moon
Secretary-General, United Nations
New York, N.Y.
Dear Mr. Secretary-General,
Re: UN climate conference taking the World in entirely the wrong direction
It is not possible to stop climate change, a natural phenomenon that has affected humanity through the ages. Geological, archaeological, oral and written histories all attest to the dramatic challenges posed to past societies from unanticipated changes in temperature, precipitation, winds and other climatic variables. We therefore need to equip nations to become resilient to the full range of these natural phenomena by promoting economic growth and wealth generation.
The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has issued increasingly alarming conclusions about the climatic influences of human-produced carbon dioxide (CO2), a non-polluting gas that is essential to plant photosynthesis. While we understand the evidence that has led them to view CO2 emissions as harmful, the IPCC’s conclusions are quite inadequate as justification for implementing policies that will markedly diminish future prosperity. In particular, it is not established that it is possible to significantly alter global climate through cuts in human greenhouse gas emissions. On top of which, because attempts to cut emissions will slow development, the current UN approach of CO2 reduction is likely to increase human suffering from future climate change rather than to decrease it.
The IPCC Summaries for Policy Makers are the most widely read IPCC reports amongst politicians and non-scientists and are the basis for most climate change policy formulation. Yet these Summaries are prepared by a relatively small core writing team with the final drafts approved line-by-line by government representatives. The great majority of IPCC contributors and reviewers, and the tens of thousands of other scientists who are qualified to comment on these matters, are not involved in the preparation of these documents. The summaries therefore cannot properly be represented as a consensus view among experts.
Contrary to the impression left by the IPCC Summary reports:
z Recent observations of phenomena such as glacial retreats, sea-level rise and the migration of temperature-sensitive species are not evidence for abnormal climate change, for none of these changes has been shown to lie outside the bounds of known natural variability.
z The average rate of warming of 0.1 to 0. 2 degrees Celsius per decade recorded by satellites during the late 20th century falls within known natural rates of warming and cooling over the last 10,000 years.
z Leading scientists, including some senior IPCC representatives, acknowledge that today’s computer models cannot predict climate. Consistent with this, and despite computer projections of temperature rises, there has been no net global warming since 1998. That the current temperature plateau follows a late 20th-century period of warming is consistent with the continuation today of natural multi-decadal or millennial climate cycling.
In stark contrast to the often repeated assertion that the science of climate change is „settled,” significant new peer-reviewed research has cast even more doubt on the hypothesis of dangerous human-caused global warming. But because IPCC working groups were generally instructed (see https://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/docs/wg1_timetable_2006-08-14.pdf) to consider work published only through May, 2005, these important findings are not included in their reports; i.e., the IPCC assessment reports are already materially outdated.
The UN climate conference in Bali has been planned to take the world along a path of severe CO2 restrictions, ignoring the lessons apparent from the failure of the Kyoto Protocol, the chaotic nature of the European CO2 trading market, and the ineffectiveness of other costly initiatives to curb greenhouse gas emissions. Balanced cost/benefit analyses provide no support for the introduction of global measures to cap and reduce energy consumption for the purpose of restricting CO2 emissions. Furthermore, it is irrational to apply the „precautionary principle” because many scientists recognize that both climatic coolings and warmings are realistic possibilities over the medium-term future.
The current UN focus on „fighting climate change,” as illustrated in the Nov. 27 UN Development Programme’s Human Development Report, is distracting governments from adapting to the threat of inevitable natural climate changes, whatever forms they may take. National and international planning for such changes is needed, with a focus on helping our most vulnerable citizens adapt to conditions that lie ahead. Attempts to prevent global climate change from occurring are ultimately futile, and constitute a tragic misallocation of resources that would be better spent on humanity’s real and pressing problems.
În privinţa felului în care ONU elaborează rapoartele climaterice care ulterior devin evanghelii de necontestat:
The UN Climate Change Numbers Hoax
SUA e constant admonestată deoarece a refuzat să ratifice tratatul Kyoto. SUA e cowboy-ul recalcitrant care poluează planeta. A doua afirmaţie e falsă din start iar prima dă apă la moară ideii că o semnătură pe o bucată de hîrtie e suficientă ca să-ţi crească aripi de înger ecologic. Ceea ce e şi mai fals.
Hillman, senior fellow emeritus at the Policy Studies Institute, says carbon rationing is the only way to ensure that the world avoids the worst effects of climate change. And he says that the problems caused by burning fossil fuels are so serious that governments might have to implement rationing against the will of the people.
„When the chips are down I think democracy is a less important goal than is the protection of the planet from the death of life, the end of life on it,” he says. „This has got to be imposed on people whether they like it or not.”